The first billionaire YouTuber is going after Coca-Cola and PepsiCo

We analyze comps in the sport & energy drink market to understand how much Prime might be worth — and how it will likely create the first YouTube creator billionaire.

MrBeast pulled in $82M in revenue in the last year, according to Forbes. And so many think he will be the first YouTube billionaire.

But Logan Paul or KSI are the more likely contenders.

Why?

Because of their equity in sports drink Prime.

Given its rapid growth, Prime may be worth $3.1B to $8.4B — making Logan Paul and KSI both potentially billionaires.

We break it down in this valuation deep dive, covering:

Prime comps
Comparable revenue, valuation, and multiples
The secretive CPG incubator behind Prime
How Coca-Cola and PepsiCo protect their market
Prime valuation ranges and potential acquirers
How much Logan Paul’s and KSI’s stakes are worth
Further reading

All of the commercial and financial transaction data in this valuation deep dive is from CB Insights. Learn more here.

Prime comps

For the purposes of this analysis, we will use a wide-ranging set of comparables to arrive at a valuation for Prime.

These competitors include athletic drinks, energy drinks, and even one water company.

Here are the 16 comps analyzed and considered in this analysis:

Revenue, valuation, and multiple comps

If you are more interested in Prime’s valuation, Logan Paul and KSI’s ownership stake and the secretive incubator behind Prime, skip to the following section.

Since many of the players above are private, data availability can be mixed but what is below is the best and most comprehensive data out there.
The numbers below are inclusive of “whisper” valuations and revenue, which CB Insights picks up on.
Pay particular attention to the multiple and growth rates as they’ll be important as we think about Prime’s valuation.

Data source: CB Insights

1. BodyArmor

Valuation: $8B (2021)
Revenue: $1.4B (2021)
Multiple: 5.7x (valuation/revenue aka price/revenue multiple)
Revenue growth rate: 63.4% (CAGR 2014-2021)
Status: acquired
Current owner: Coca-Cola

BodyArmor was acquired by Coca-Cola for up to $8B in 2021. Coke previously had a minority stake in the company as did Keurig Dr Pepper.

2. Gatorade

Valuation: $8.3B (2000)
Revenue: $1.8B (1999)
Multiple: 4.6x
Growth rate: 6.3% (2019-2020)
Status: acquired
Owner: Pepsi

As a historical reference point, Gatorade was part of Quaker Oats which Pepsi acquired in 2000 for $13.8B when it had revenue of $3B. At the time, Gatorade was $1.8B of the $3B in revenue and so we’ve allocated the total valuation in line with Gatorade’s revenue contribution. This is likely giving Gatorade too low a valuation given that it was the growth engine of Quaker Oats.

3. Powerade

Powerade was created by and is sold by Coca-Cola.

Revenue: $1.66B (2020)
Growth rate: 0.61% (2019-2020)
Owner: Coca-Cola

4. Celsius

Market cap: $13.1B
Revenue: $952M — trailing twelve months (TTM)
Multiple: 13.8x
Growth rate: 108% (2021-2022)
Status: publicly traded (ticker: CELH)
Investors: Pepsi invested in 2022 at a $6.5B valuation

5. Monster Energy

Market cap: $55.6B
Revenue: $6.7B (2022)
Multiple: 8.3x
Growth rate: 13.9% (2021-2022)
Status: publicly traded (ticker: MNST)
Investors: Coca-Cola invested in 2015 at a $12.9B valuation

6. Rockstar Energy

Valuation: $3.85B (2020)
Revenue: $487M (2021)
Multiple: 7.9x
Status: acquired
Owner: Pepsi

7. Fuze Beverages

Valuation: $250M (2007)
Revenue: $90M (2006)
Multiple: 2.8x
Status: acquired
Owner: Coca-Cola

8. Ghost Energy

Revenue: $262M (2023)
Status: private
Investor: AB InBev

9. Nutrabolt

Valuation: $2.8B (current)
Revenue: $654M (2022)
Multiple: 4.3x
Status: private
Investor: Keurig Dr Pepper

Nutrabolt is the creator of brands such as C4 and Cellucor.

10. Lucozade

Valuation: $2.1B (2013)
Revenue: $775M (2012)
Multiple: 2.7x
Status: acquired
Owner: Suntory

11. Bang Energy

Valuation: $362M (2023)
Revenue: $300M (2019)
Multiple: 1.2x
Status: acquired
Owner: Monster Beverage

Monster bought Bang Energy out of bankruptcy after Bang Energy lost a legal case that required it to pay Monster $293M for false advertising.

12. Alani Nu

Valuation: $3B (2023) — rumored
Revenue: $343M (2023)
Multiple: 8.7x
Status: private
Investor: Congo Brands

Note: Alani Nu’s valuation is rumored as the company was reportedly for sale. It was incubated by Congo Brands.

13. Liquid Death

Valuation: $700M (2022)
Revenue: $130M (2020)
Multiple: 5.4x
Growth rate: 259.4% (CAGR 2019-2022)
Status: private
Investors: Live Nation Entertainment, Science Ventures

Liquid Death is the sole water brand on this list of comps.

14. Red Bull

Revenue: $10.2B (2022)
Growth rate: 27.5% (CAGR 2021-2022)
Status: private
Owners: Yoovidhya family (51%), Mateschitz family (49%)

15. Pedialyte

Revenue: $102M (2013)
Owner: Abbott Labs

16. Liquid I.V.

Revenue: $251M (2022)
Owner: Unilever

Notes:

Limited data is available on 5-hour Energy. It’s doing $1B in revenue and $300M net, but beyond that, founder Manoj Bhargava keeps info about the company quite limited.
BioSteel is another player worth highlighting that recently shut down. It was majority owned by cannabis company Canopy Growth and also backed by the likes of Patrick Mahomes but was shuttered in September 2023 after Canopy decided it would no longer fund the business.

The secretive incubator behind Prime

While the faces of Prime are influencers/YouTubers like Logan Paul and KSI — and also now JiDion who is part of the Prime Squad — the company behind Prime and other beverages keeps a lower profile.

But Congo Brands has developed a formula for launching influencer-led beverages.

What is Congo Brands?

Per CB Insights,

“Congo Brands is a full-service product CPG product incubation firm. It helps organizations with talent management, logistics, branding, merchandising, and product development services. It was founded in 2014 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

They are described as a white-label beverage manufacturer. Generally, their playbook is to partner with influencers who they work alongside to create beverages that they can jointly create and market to the influencer/content creator’s audience who the influencer then markets to in exchange for equity in the entity.”

Its most notable brand is Prime, but Cong Brands also incubated Alani Nu, an energy drink targeting women and has worked with the likes of Kim Kardashian to launch limited-edition flavors. Alani Nu as you can see in the valuation & revenue data above was rumored to be on the block for $3B recently.

Congo Brands was founded by and is owned & operated by Trey Steiger and Max Clemons. It appears to have built a playbook for incubating and launching beverage brands. Their other incubated brand per CB Insights is 3D Energy Drinks.

Coca-Cola & Pepsi: Keep friends close, keep enemies closer

While PepsiCo has a clear lead in the athletic drink market (via its ownership of Gatorade) and the Coca-Cola Company has a solid lock on the #2 spot (via Powerade), both are incredibly nimble and aggressive when it comes to protecting their market share.

As the list of comps above highlights, 7 of the 16 players in the market are owned by or have been invested in by Pepsi or Coca-Cola.

Pepsi owns Gatorade and Rockstar Energy and invested in rocketship Celsius.
Coca-Cola owns Powerade, BodyArmor, and Fuze and invested in energy drink behemoth Monster.

Coca-Cola and Pepsi will be aware of companies making moves in the athletic drinks market — and they may eventually be a capital and distribution source via an equity investment or even via acquisition. Until then, Coca-Cola and Pepsi will be formidable competitors for new entrants.

Prime valuation estimates

So what is Prime actually worth?

The first important thing to settle on is Prime’s revenue.

Reports put Prime’s 2022 revenue at $250M.
Based on run rate trend data from CB Insights, Prime may be on track for $540M to $672M of revenue in 2023. For simplicity, we’ll take the average of $606M.
Given whisper revenues by private companies are often overstated for PR benefit, we’ll apply a 25% discount to this $606M to be conservative, giving us revenue of $455M.

Now the question is, what multiple should we use?

If we look at the multiples from above for publicly traded companies or deals done since 2020, we’d use the multiples of Body Armor, Monster Beverage, Rockstar Energy, Nutrabolt, Celsius, and Liquid Death.

The median revenue multiple of those companies is 6.8x.

The high valuation multiple to use would be that of Celsius Holdings which trades at a 13.8x multiple.

It’s not unrealistic to assume Prime could trade at a Celsius multiple given growth rates are significantly above market and revenues are in a similar neighborhood.

So we’ll use those 2 multiples and the revenue estimates to come up with a range of valuations for Prime.

Scenario 1: Median industry multiple + conservative revenue

Valuation: $3.1B

(6.8x multiple x $455M revenue)

Scenario 2: Median industry multiple + aggressive revenue

Valuation: $4.1B

(6.8x multiple x $606M revenue)

Scenario 3: Celsius multiple + conservative revenue

Valuation: $6.3B

(13.8x multiple x $455M revenue)

Scenario 4: Celsius multiple + aggressive revenue

Valuation: $8.4B

(13.8x multiple x $606M revenue)

Keeping things simple, the average of the above 4 gives us a valuation for Prime of $5.5B.

This may be conservative.

Prime’s ability to lock down major sponsorship deals with the likes of Arsenal, the UFC, FC Barcelona, and BASE Sports Group, among others and its rapid growth make it very possible that it trades at the high end of those valuation scenarios.

These commercial transactions are also taken from CB Insights.

Potential acquirers

The beverage market for energy and athletic drinks is large and messy. That is good news for Prime as it means there are multiple potential suitors.

The obvious choices are, of course, Pepsi and Coca-Cola. They’re aggressive and nimble when it comes to protecting and growing their share of the market either via investment, distribution partnerships, or outright acquisitions.

But there are several other players who’d love to find a way to make a splash in this market including:

Celsius and Monster seem less likely to be potential acquirers of Prime because of their existing tie-ups with Pepsi and Coca-Cola.

How much are Logan Paul and KSI worth?

Given Congo Brands is behind Prime, it is unclear how much Logan Paul and/or KSI own of Prime.

However, media reports suggest Paul owns 20% of Prime.

At $5.5B, that would make Logan’s stake worth $1.1B. It may also mean KSI is on track to be a billionaire.

And those are your first YouTube billionaires — not Mr. Beast.

These are also the players that Coca-Cola, Pepsi, or any number of others hoping to enter the market should be tracking closely.

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